Local Shopping Centers for Sale?

The Gargantuan REIT, General Growth Properties (GGP), one of the largest shopping mall owners (and owner of several large shopping centers in the Washington DC Metropolitan Area), is facing bankruptcy straight in its eyeballs. Will it blink?

GGP has failed to refinance or extend $1 billion in debt due this month, which could trigger default. Already, GGP warned of its precarious position in its quarterly filing to the SEC. Furthermore, GGP is facing an additional $3.07 billion in debt coming due in 2009.

GGP Says: “Our potential inability to address our 2008 and 2009 debt maturities in a satisfactory fashion raises substantial doubts as to our ability to continue as an ongoing concern,” General Growth Properties said in a Securities and Exchange Commission filing. “We may be required to take further steps to acquire the funds necessary to satisfy our short term cash needs, including seeking legal protection from our creditors.”

This current financial situation will be placing the future of its assets in jeopardy. GGP will be under extreme pressure to raise additional capital to pay off these imminent obligations.

What Will GGP Do? or WWGD?

1) Issue Stock or Bonds: Now, GGP can issue stock or bonds to raise money, but who would want to buy stock/bonds in a company thats in this dire position? The company has lost 99 percent of its market value this year; its stock was trading at 48 cents per share at the close of the market on Tuesday. Skittish investors will most definitely steer clear. And the liquidity crisis means most institutional investors and banks will continue to hoard money rather than take this investment risk.

2) Ask Uncle Sam: Bailouts abound these days, perhaps a Government bailout can be GGP's white knight. Solid support for their presidential neighbor may very well pay off.

3) Cut Corners & Costs: GGP is a major employer of 4,200 professionals nationwide, will it lay people off and start buying the single-ply toilet paper for its facilities? This option may generate savings and reduce overhead, but won't generate any revenue.

4) Raise Rents: Raising tenant's rents is out of the question as it would only drive out tenants and have the opposite effect. Moreover, the weak retail segment won't bear this increase in rent.

5) Divest its Assets: Taking the Good 'ol Fashioned approach to raising capital by selling off its assets may very well be the most sensible option in this economic environment. However, this won't be a walk in the park. Challenges in the retail sector will make this a complex and lengthy proposition. GGP should be willing to take reasonable offers on its properties, since this will allow them to pay off lenders and keep afloat. Trimming down its property portfolio and getting rid of the "dogs" may improve its overall long-term position. Sometimes one has to take one step back to take two steps forward.

6) Chapter 11: Bankruptcy.Game Over. Lenders Call the Shots. Shareholders Lose Big Time.

Surviving the Storm: A Recipe for Success

Weathering the Storm: As the financial storm makes its way through the Washington DC region, we can expect our fair share of changes that can present perfect opportunities for savvy commercial real estate investors, particularly those with available liquidity. In recent years, the commercial real estate market was a seller's market, with institutional investors and gargantuan private equity firms gobbling up as many properties as possible. The previous conditions spurred this type of irrational exuberance (yes, this term also applies to larger commercial real estate investors) as the carrying costs were low, bank lending terms were lenient, non-recourse loans were plentiful, and CMBSs were the hot-topic. Now, in the middle of the storm, learn how to stay dry and not lose your shirt.

Investment firms like Merril Lynch and Lehman Brothers played this game and funded many commercial real estate operations across the region. Now, as the financial crisis has claimed its victims, commercial real estate funding has become quite scarce as banks hoard cash and build up their reserves to cover all the bad loans they made. Now, don't get me wrong, there is still money out there, it's just that the bar has been raised and the rules of the game have changed.

The Queen of Hearts Dilemma: Bank behavior these days remind me of the Queen of Hearts in Lewis Carroll's epic Alice in Wonderland. Alice described the queen as a "fat, pompous, bad tempered old tyrant," now I don't believe banks deserve this description, although many investors, developers and small businesses may disagree. The Queen of Hearts, when she challenged Alice to a game of croquet, would continuously change the rules of the game to ensure she was always winning despite Alice's noble efforts to play the game.

Changing the Game: Well, banks are changing the rules much in the same way the queen did for Alice. Banks have always done so to gain an edge over the competition. They changed the rules and lowered the lending standards... and got burned with defaulting loans and bad paper. Somewhere along the way banks forgot that their only competitive advantage in the industry is disciplined lending. Nothing more, nothing less. Al the Marketing in the world couldn't save IndyMac or Wachovia from their demise (the same applies to Merril Lynch and Lehman Brothers). Except now, banks have changed their internal rules and made it increasingly difficult for many investors to finance a particular project or acquisition, They've even been so bold as to pull the funding out of previously approved projects! All in all, over $1.3 Billion in commercial real estate projects has been cancelled this year.

What does this mean?

Work with the experts! Banks are scrutinizing loans more carefully; investors would be very well advised to work with a reputable Commercial Broker and Title Company, since these professionals can best help formulate the transaction and anticipate any problems that may scare off a lender. The do-it-yourself-deals won't have the momentum or appeal to make it past the tougher lending standards.

Cash is King! Having available liquidity prior to any commercial acquisition is important these days as most lenders are requesting 20-30% down. Furthermore, banks want to see income sources other than real estate that can guarantee the loan.

Opportunities Abound! As the financing pool has dried up, those liquid investors will be able to jump on the deals others couldn't afford due to bank lending requirements. Also, as banks have pulled the credit lines or significantly reduced credit lines to businesses and investors, many properties are for sale. Some aren't formally on the market, but the parent company is strapped for cash and the only way to raise funds is to do it the old-fashioned-way: liquidating assets!

Gain a Competitive Edge! Working with a commercial real estate broker, whether you are purchasing, selling, or investing, will help you obtain an edge in this difficult market.

Search for properties! Learn how the TG Commercial Property Group can help you succeed: http://www.tgcommercialproperty.com/